Alzheimer’s Cases Could Triple by 2050: Here’s How Addressing 14 Dementia Risks Now Could Change That

Dementia cases worldwide are projected to nearly triple, from roughly 57 million people in 2019 to 153 million by 2050, and global costs already exceed $1 trillion each year. The 2024 Lancet Commission concluded that about 45% of those cases could be prevented or delayed if people and governments tackled 14 modifiable dementia risk factors starting in childhood and continuing into old age.

Written by 27 world-leading dementia experts, the Commission updated its earlier 2020 framework by adding two new risk factors, high LDL cholesterol and vision loss. Its full guidance on information for dementia prevention, intervention and care outlines how families, doctors and policymakers can act at every stage of life.

How the 14 dementia risk factors break down by life stage

The Commission groups the 14 dementia risk factors by when they tend to appear. Each factor carries an estimated share of the risk that could be avoided if addressed early enough.

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In early life, less education accounts for 5% of the modifiable share.

Aging

What the Latest Research Shows About Hearing Loss and Dementia Risk

Hearing loss has quietly become one of the most talked about risk factors in dementia prevention research. It’s now recognized as the single largest modifiable contributor, ahead of high cholesterol and smoking combined. Yet people who first notice a change in their hearing wait an average of nine years before getting help. That gap is […]

In midlife, hearing loss (7%), high LDL cholesterol (7%), depression (3%), traumatic brain injury (3%), physical inactivity (2%), diabetes (2%), smoking (2%), hypertension (2%), obesity (1%) and excessive alcohol (1%) each contribute.

In later life, social isolation (5%), air pollution (3%) and vision loss (2%) round out the list. Together the 14 dementia risk factors now form the backbone of current thinking on modifiable dementia risk and much of the practical advice on how to prevent alzheimer’s-related decline across a lifetime.

Which dementia risk factors matter most

Four factors carry the largest weight globally. Hearing impairment and high LDL cholesterol each account for about 7% of the modifiable share, while less education in early life and social isolation in later life each account for about 5%.

That means the biggest population-level gains come from making hearing aids accessible, treating high cholesterol from around age 40, expanding quality education for children and building social ties for older adults. Lead author Professor Gill Livingston of UCL Psychiatry said, “Our new report reveals that there is much more that can and should be done to reduce the risk of dementia. It’s never too early or too late to take action, with opportunities to make an impact at any stage of life.”

Livingston also warned that longer exposure to risk factors has a greater effect, and that the impact is strongest on people who are already vulnerable, including those in low- and middle-income countries and socio-economically disadvantaged groups.

What the Lancet Commission recommends people and governments do

The Commission calls for policy and lifestyle actions across the life course. Key recommendations include the following.

• Provide all children with good-quality education and support lifelong cognitive activity.
• Make hearing aids accessible and reduce harmful noise exposure.
• Detect and treat high LDL cholesterol from around age 40.
• Make vision screening and treatment accessible for all.
• Treat depression effectively and prevent head injuries with helmets in cycling and contact sports.
• Support inclusive communities and housing that reduce social isolation.
• Reduce exposure to air pollution, smoking and harmful alcohol use.
• Prevent and manage high blood pressure, diabetes and obesity with healthier food environments.

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Wendy Weidner, director of research and publications at Alzheimer’s Disease International, said the findings underscore “the critical importance of a life-course approach to risk reduction, with targeted interventions across different stages of life.”

“While we have yet to find a cure for dementia, every proactive step in addressing dementia risk can make a world of difference at a personal and societal level, and policymakers have an essential role to play,” Weidner said.

Livingston added that healthy lifestyles may not only lower risk but also push back dementia onset, meaning people who do develop dementia may live fewer years with it.